What a night! When I walked back in to get my bag at the end of the day yesterday, it was gone. In it were my car keys, my wallet, my cash, and my passport!
Turns out that one of my pals had taken my bag by mistake! Realized it around mid-night, and called and left me a Voice-Mail, so it will appear shortly. What a relief!
Now for this morning, the first session is:
Will the Internet still be here in 20 years. Again, another all star panel! It is truly remarkable as to how Tony Perkins recruits people to come and talk!
Nick McKeown..Professor at Stanford
Andy Bechtolsheim, co-founder of Sun.
Phil McKinney, VP & CTO Personal Systems Group/HP.
Bechtolsheim is taking us through a brief history of the Internet! Raises an interesting point, “where did all the questions go before Google?” Doesn’t understand social networking! First mover, i.e. Friendster didn’t become successful. Believes things will be a lot more wireless. Just popped out the iPhone, i.e. idea being first phone with a real browser. Real Internet on mobile devices. Not wired, but wireless. Connected at high speed.
Second key idea is privacy/security! Spam is the dominant form of E-Mail! Has to be fixed!
Third key idea…is applications! Gradual shift to software as a service! Not own your own data center. Outsource to others! So inexpensive that you kind of wonder. Change the conventional IT industry. Key to change is bandwidth. Next step is taking advantage of the opportunity.
Greg Cope of Accenture is the moderator!
Bechtolsheim…once it becomes clear, people adopt. People adopt business model when things change.
McKeown… Evolution is the greater force in all technology. Evolution is brutal, ways in which it kills off bad ideas. Not clear that we aren’t going have brutal change! Problem is you can’t reliably determine the origin of packet. Future…way in which the Internet is financed. Public Internet is subsidized by private networks and telephony. Change is afoot!
McKinney… $3 Trillion cost to light up the dark network existing in the ground! Kids today, no concept of dial phones/records/black and white TV. Question, what is the “second order effect”… Web 2.0, second order of magnitude!
Hosting summer interns in his house!
Bechtolsheim … biggest change coming from startup companies creating new business models. Why don’t big companies adapt, too disruptive to their business models. Pain…equals cost per month! 802.11 net work for phones.
Cope… Does the walled garden go away?
Bechtolsheim … We anticipate need, but not always see the better way.
McKeown… Big deal is the economic sustainability. Looming crisis!
Cope… Do we see a move to more regulation of the Internet?
McKinney… What is the economic model by which you light up the dark fiber? Goal being to avoid a full regulatory environment!
Bechtolsheim … disagrees with $3 Trillion number for expensive backbone, etc. Seeing a mis-pricing. Price point off the chart, could cost as little as few hundred dollars to light up! OC760/10k ports per year.
McKinney… people who live in dense areas with lots of bandwidth are going to have economic advantage. Dense populations can be served.
Bechtolsheim … Big problem with HD video, requires too much bandwidth.
McKeown… we know that way cars will be powered will be different in the future. Video may be the dominant application! The result will be disruptive.
Bechtolsheim … YouTube a fairly real time system! Big screen, takes way too long to download and run! People get tired of waiting. 10 gig connection, you can copy a full DVD in less than 5 seconds… never go to another DVD rental store.
What’s the next big idea?
Bechtolsheim … most promising ones where changing business model, has to be a significant change.
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