Last session of the day, and last session of the conference!
What is it that we really can know about the future!
Man of many skills! Expert as to why everyone makes bad long term decisions! We are much worse at making long term financial decisions than we think we are!
“Conferences usually dull people saying how great they are!”
Humberto Ecco has a library that contains 30,000 books.We focus on what we know, rather than what we don’t know.
Dynamics of Randomness…
Narrative fallacy, you can narrate back. Much of what happens in history is determined by black swans.
“Why are you doing forecasting?” Forecast has no validity unless you know the error rate! If someone tells you the future, he owns you!
“If you find it on the cover of Time Magazine, it doesn’t work!”
Yogi Berra, “The future ain’t what it used to be!”
Deceit, self-caption and the war!
Deception is a deep feature of nature. Deception generates self-deception.
Warfare is especially about self-deception!
Few general principles that have appeared…
We now have the basis to create a theory of why we indulge in deceit and self-deception.
Bob Metcalfe was superb! You needed to be here…
Buzz, thanks for blogging PopTech. From two seats right of you in the front row I also enjoyed Nassim Nicholas Taleb's talk.
The gem I scribbled down was this:
Many of us construct a "narrative fallacy of looking at past success as part of a plan or pattern."
I explore this and other decision making phenomena in my weblog at http://richardrowan.typepad.com
Thanks, again
Posted by: Dick | October 24, 2005 at 07:02 PM